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GF Securities (000776): Consolidation and consolidation of overseas funds dragged down 18-year results lower than expected

GF Securities (000776): Consolidation and consolidation of overseas funds dragged down 18-year results lower than expected

Performance review 18-year performance exceeded expectations. GF Securities’ 18-year revenue was -29% to 152 in the decade.

US $ 700 million, net profit attributable to mothers exceeds -50% to US $ 4.3 billion, and ROAE is -5 in the reporting period.

5ppt to 5.

1%; Corresponds to 4Q18 net profit-/ 92% /-85% to 1.

9 billion.

The company’s performance was lower than expected, mainly due to the consolidation and consolidation of the Pandi Fund, which is owned by GF Hong Kong: the fund has been in existence for 18 years.

US $ 3.9 billion, a reduction of the group’s consolidated net profit totaling 9.

19 trillion; at the same time, it received a margin call from the main broker (the amount is 1 at the end of the period).

$ 2.9 billion), and still face potential litigation or the possibility of being sued.

  Development Trends The growth in stock quality and leasing business has driven the wealth management segment’s revenue to increase slightly.

Wealth management income is + 3% to 830,000 yuan per year. 1) Net income from securities trading is -26% to 24 per year.

400 million, of which the commission rate is stable at 10 million.

2. The trading market share decreased slightly by 0.

2ppt to 4.

1%; 2) Liangrong interest income from 7% to 3.8 billion, the balance is -29% to 39.9 billion from the beginning of the year (market share of 5).

3%); 3) Repurchase interest income + 36% to 1.6 billion, with a surplus of -16% to 22.3 billion from the beginning of the year (market share 1).

9%); at the end of the period, the maximum share impairment?
1%; 4) Finance lease income + 27% to 1.

700 million.

  Equity disputes weigh on transactions and institutional business performance.

The scale of the company’s financial assets was + 19% to 185.5 billion compared with the beginning of the year, which was mainly driven by the growth of bond assets.

Trading and institutional business income was below -73% to 8.

60,000 yuan: 1) Equity and derivatives business investment 2.

200 million, the earlier interim report may be 4.

300 million has narrowed; 2) Solid income investment income exceeds + 22% to 45.

500 million, outstanding 杭州桑拿网 performance; 3) Alternative investment Guangfa stems and income ten years -61% to 1.

300 million / net profit is lower than -76% to 33.08 million.

  The decline in investment banking business was higher than the industry.

The company’s investment bank income is -56% to 12 ‰ per year, of which: 1) stock underwriting income -70% to 4.

30,000 yuan, and the financing amount accounts for -1.

0ppt to 1.

1%; 2) Bond underwriting income -29% to 4.

200 million, the financing amount accounted for -0.

5ppt to 0.

9%; 3) Financial advisory business includes mergers and acquisitions restructuring and the New Third Board, with revenue of at least -56% year-on-year to 2.


  Revenue from the investment management segment was -40% to US $ 4.2 billion, of which: 1) GF asset management revenue was -24% to 1.3 billion, corresponding to the asset management scale at the beginning of the year-142 billion to 381.4 billion; 2) private equity fund GF Xinde income64% to 5.

200 million; 3) In terms of public offering funds, GF Fund revenue was -23% to 2.3 billion, non-cargo-based public offering AUM reached 198.9 billion (sector 6), E Fund’s income + 14% to 5.3 billion, and non-cargo-based public offering AUM reached 2,553 Billion (the industry’s first).
  Earnings forecast As a result of raising the 19-year market stock ADT to 600 billion and adjusting investment income assumptions, we raise the company’s 2019 / 20e earnings forecast by 4% / 1% to 72.
500 million / 77.

800 million.

  Estimates and recommendations Companies currently sustainably correspond to 19e 1.

3x P / B.

Maintain neutral rating and target price of 18.

18 yuan, corresponding to 19e 1.

5x PBR and 16% growth space.

  Risk stock market activity decreased; capital market reforms fell short of expectations; investment business risks were further exposed.