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Orient Securities (600958): Asset management business stays ahead, equity investment scale shrinks significantly

Orient Securities (600958): Asset management business stays ahead, equity investment scale shrinks significantly

Performance review 18-year results are in line with expectations Oriental Securities’ 18-year revenue was -2% to 103 in the past.

0 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother for ten years -65% to 12.

3 ppm, ROAE reporting period -5 months.

3ppt to 2.

4%; Corresponding 4Q18 net profit is -65% / + 74% to 74%.

3 billion.

In addition, the company’s business and management fee rate is -3 per year.

3ppt to 48.

9%; Leverage of own assets is zero in ten years.

1x to 3.

8 times.

  Development trend The improvement of agency business has slowed the decline of brokerage industry.

Corporate brokerage income is -8% to 13 per year.

5 billion (vs.

Industry transaction volume over the same period was -18%), or benefited from the increase in brokerage institutions’ fees and market share, which was steadily improving: institutional client custody assets accounted for + 20ppt to 77% per year at the end of the period.

In addition, income from consignment of financial products for a decade + 40% to 1.

0 million yuan, ranking rose to 11th.

  The investment bank’s business performance was relatively stable.

Investment bank income is -14% to 11.

4 billion (vs.

Industry -27%): The equity underwriting market accounts for -0.

7ppt to 0.

6%, 4 IPO projects at the end of the period have passed / 6 are under trial; the market for debt underwriting accounts for -0.

3ppt to 0.

9%, 23 bonds underwritten at the end of the period / 14 under review; M & A and restructuring scale of 54 billion yuan, including Wanhua Chemical Star Cross-border M & A project.

  The asset management business maintained a 南京桑拿网 leading edge.

1) Asset management revenue increased 20% to 23 against the market.

8 billion (vs.

Industry -11%), and the scale of asset management at the end of the period was -7% to 20.01 million yuan (among which the size of public offerings was + 14% to 85.6 billion). Active management accounted for 98%.

5%; 2) The scale of public offering of Huitianfu Fund (holding 35%) is + 43% to 462.9 billion compared with the beginning of the year, and it has realized revenue from revenue in + 18% to 3.6 billion in 18 years / net profit reaching -16% to 1 billion US dollars; 3) TOP Capital’s management scale reached 23.9 billion at the end of the period, and its revenue in 18 years increased by 10 years.

3 times to 9.

5 ppm / net profit grows by 5 per year.

2 times to 5.

600 million.

  Self-employed business is the main drag, and the scale of equity investment has dropped 武汉夜网论坛 significantly.

After adjusting the interest income of debt and other debt investment from index income to investment income: 1) Investment income was extended by -53% to 3.4 billion, of which transaction financial assets decreased by 1.1 billion.

The expansion of bond investment has driven the total scale of self-employment by + 15% to 86 billion, but the scale of stock self-employment has been replaced by 11.9 billion at the beginning of the period and 3.5 billion at the end of the period.

500 million to 18.600 million: Liangrong interest rate + 5% to 900 million, the balance is -23% to 9.7 billion compared with the beginning of the year (market share of 1.
.

3%), income from stock gains is -18% to 1.7 billion, and the balance is -23% to 25.6 billion from the beginning of the year (market share 1)

9%, and the impairment provision at the end of the period accounts for 3% of the balance).

  Earnings forecast is due to a 19-year increase in the stock market ADT to 600 billion and the company ‘s investment yield assumptions are raised. We raise the company ‘s 2019 / 20e profit forecast by 15% / 6% to 2.9 billion / 3.1 billion USD.

  Orient Securities-A / H are trading at 19e 1 respectively.

4x / 0.

7x 2019e P / B.

Maintain Orient-A neutral rating and target price.

3 yuan, corresponding to 1 in 19 years.

Price-earnings ratio of 7 times; Maintain Dongfang-H recommended rating and target price of 8.

6 constructions, corresponding to 1 in 19 years.

0x P / B.

  Risk stock market activity has decreased; capital market reforms have fallen short of expectations; asset management growth has fallen short of expectations.